Interesting Post by Laura over at Occasionally Clever.

I take an even more neutral position with regard to the ability of Web 2.0 technologies to topple authoritarian regimes. In other words, advantage: no one. Cohen and Shirky et. al portray Web 2.0 as a revolutionary technology that will forever tilt the balance of power to those working for open societies. In fact, they are bolder than that, portraying these new technologies as trumpets that will topple the walls of authoritarian regimes just as the trumpets of the Joshua’s army toppled the walls of Jericho.

Well, subsequent events have both supported and undercut the Cohen-Shirky prognostication/prophesy. Iran showed how regimes could undercut democratic movements using web-based surveillance and their own cyber-army.[1] Egypt showed that activists could use Facebook to motivate people to demonstrate against an authoritarian regime.

Being a military history buff, there is an interesting parallel between the introduction of Web 2.0 technologies and the introduction of the cannon to the battlefield. Intuitively, the cannon would seem to favor the attacker because he could now break down the defender’s castle walls with ease. However, that didn’t mean that all subsequent battles were won by the attacker. Defenders just got their own cannons and faced each other on open fields. So began the era of Napoleonic warfare.

Web 2.0 is analogous in that it neither heralds an advantage for the attacker in the form of democracy activists, or the defender in the form of regimes. Instead of giving either one an advantage, Web 2.0 is simply another tool with which they will have to do battle. Whoever utilizes it the most cunning and effective way will prevail.

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[1] http://www.lrb.co.uk/v32/n23/james-harkin/cyber-con

Picture source: http://www.themcs.org/weaponry/cannon/cannon.htm